Ekonomik Karmaşıklığın Karbon Yoğunluğu Üzerindeki Etkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Dinamik Bir Analiz
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/ankad.v10i1.351Anahtar Kelimeler:
Karbon yoğunluğu- Ekonomik karmaşıklık- Sistem GMM- Sürdürülebilir kalkınmaÖzet
Bu çalışma, 1995-2023 döneminde 36 OECD ülkesinin verilerini kullanarak ekonomik karmaşıklığın karbon yoğunluğu üzerindeki etkilerini dinamik panel veri yöntemleriyle incelemektedir. Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak ekonomik üretimin çevresel verimliliğini yansıtan karbon yoğunluğu kullanılmış, temel açıklayıcı değişken ise ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksi olmuştur. Analiz, olası içsellik sorunlarını gidermek ve dinamik bağımlılığı dikkate almak amacıyla Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu ile gerçekleştirilmiştir.
Sonuçlar, karbon yoğunluğunun yüksek derecede kalıcı olduğunu ve geçmiş emisyon düzeylerinin mevcut çevresel performansı güçlü biçimde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ekonomik karmaşıklık katsayısı kısa dönemde pozitif bulunmuş, ancak gelir düzeyiyle etkileşim terimi (ECI×lnGDPper) negatif ve anlamlı çıkmıştır. Bu durum, ekonomik karmaşıklığın düşük gelir düzeylerinde karbon yoğunluğunu artırdığı, ancak yüksek gelir düzeylerinde emisyonları azalttığına işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, ticaret açıklığı karbon yoğunluğunu düşürürken, sermaye birikiminin pozitif etkisi bulunmuştur.
Sonuç olarak, bulgular ekonomik karmaşıklığın çevresel etkisinin koşullu olduğunu ve kalkınma aşamasına bağlı olarak değiştiğini göstermektedir. Yüksek gelirli ve teknoloji odaklı ekonomilerde karmaşıklığın düşük karbonlu üretimi desteklediği, bu nedenle yapısal dönüşümün iklim politikalarında merkezi bir rol oynaması gerektiği vurgulanmaktadır.
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